Due to Hal being sick again. Sigh.
So here's a puzzle to entertain you while you're not learning all about treebanking and PCFGs....
Suppose Hal presents symptoms that make it 90% certain that he has some illness X. And suppose that the rate of transmission of X is 5%. Suppose that the average rate of incidence of X in a general population is 0.01%. What is the probability that you would get sick if we had class tomorrow (and you showed up)? There are 45 students in class: what's the probability that at least one would get sick? Finally, suppose that your utility function is defined as U(learn about pcfgs and don't get sick) = +10, U(don't learn and don't get sick) = 0, U(learn and get sick) = -20, U(don't learn and get sick) = -100. (How annoying would that be.) What is the expected utility if I do teach class? What is the expected utility if I cancel class? Am I doing the right thing?
Feel free to post solutions :).
I'm sorry to hear that you're ill. However, I have to ask - is there any chance that we can get an email in circumstances like this? Just on those rare occasions when something is critical or there is late notice? I check the blog, but certainly not within every 16 hour window.
ReplyDeleteThank you! See you Thursday!
I'm not sure -- I'll look in to see if I can figure out how to send emails to the class. (If there's a way, I'll do it in the future.)
ReplyDeleteHal - You should be able to create a class reflector. See: http://www.helpdesk.umd.edu/topics/email/lists/coursemail/262/
ReplyDeleteP(I get sick)=4.5%
ReplyDeleteP(Someone gets sick)=87.4%
U(Class)=8.65
U(Cancel)=-.01